Gridiron Challenge: Week 16 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
Archive

Investing? Ha! In this economy?

Isn't it the truth, though? If someone suggested to you today to invest fifty grand in a two-week buy-in, what would you tell that person?

Let's take a stab at it: "What's the point? Not enough time to make money."

It's the same kind of thing once you reach the next-to-last week of the Gridiron Challenge -- or any of our "Challenge"-style games. A two-week buy-in isn't really providing you all that much advantage, as what's the worst that can happen, the player goes off in Week 16 and increases in price by four-tenths of a point for the season finale? Fact is, if that player is that good, wouldn't you just suck it up and spend the extra cash anyway?

Week 17 is a nutty time in the football world besides; the Cardinals, Colts, Giants, Panthers, Steelers and Titans could by all rights have absolutely nothing to play for. You wouldn't want to touch a single player on any of those rosters in that event, in which case you already know this week that players from those teams are useless investments for next week.

No, stick with the one-week rentals for Week 16 … and 17, which is why you'll find the "Bull market" section bid us adieu following last week's appearance. Not that you should let go of a low-priced investment you already had if you still like his matchup -- Peyton Manning, I'm looking at you -- but there isn't a player out there I'd say is an absolute lock to be in both my Weeks 16 and 17 lineups. Give me the most productive players, almost regardless of matchup, and then let me sprinkle in a favorable matchup or two to make the finances add up.

Speaking of those productive players, at this point, I'm going to assume you know who they are. (Like you need me to tell you Drew Brees is a worthwhile choice this week.) So a new rule with the "One-week ponies" picks this and next week: They can't be priced among the 10 most expensive players at their respective positions. You need lower-priced bets to make the finances work, punting the investment strategy, after all!

Let's get started:

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (MIA, 4.6 price tag): Take a look at the statistics; the Dolphins have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends (2.8 per game), and the fourth-most to opposing wide receivers (21.1). Not that I'll use those numbers to condemn Tony Gonzalez's appeal in the game -- he remains in my Week 16 lineup -- but when Tyler Thigpen looks in the direction of his two top pass catchers, chances are Bowe is the one more likely to be open frequently. Plus, it's a home game, and Bowe has a receiving touchdown in each of his past four home games.

Isaac Bruce, WR, 49ers (@STL, 4.0): Shaun Hill has completed 26 passes to Bruce in the past four weeks combined, and yes, the game before that the veteran receiver managed a paltry one catch for 20 yards against these Rams. I like his bounce-back potential in the rematch in St. Louis. The Rams rank 24th against the pass, and Bruce always seemed to thrive in games for his old team at the Edward Jones Dome.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers (SD, 4.7): Can you really sit a guy who has totaled 17 receptions for 308 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back road games in Weeks 14 and 15, and now returns home to battle the league's 31st-ranked pass defense? The Buccaneers know what's at stake in this game that's playoff-relevant to both combatants, and this is the guy who has led them in fantasy points in each of the past three weeks. Nope, didn't matter at all that Jeff Garcia missed Week 15, or that he might sit this one out, too.

John Carlson, TE, Seahawks (NYJ, 3.2): Just like last week, here's your "if you don't want Tony Gonzalez, here's the smartest cheap fall-back option." Carlson might have disappointed last week, with a so-so seven points, but the fact remains he has 19 receptions for 250 yards and a touchdown the past three weeks combined. Now he draws the Jets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (7.9 per game), as his opponent in a home game. Sounds like a winner to me.

Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots (ARI, 6.4): I'm sold, and to Matt Cassel, not only do my sympathies go out to you and your family, but I'm sorry I ever doubted your ability to rise above a very challenging road matchup. Cassel sure has played himself into a plum role somewhere in 2009, and the capper for him would be carrying his Patriots into the playoffs, which would probably require wins both this and next week. I'm putting a "W" in New England's column in this one; Arizona stands little chance at improving its current No. 4 playoff seed in the NFC and has allowed a league-high 31 passing touchdowns. The only thing to monitor with Cassel is the weather reports heading into Sunday.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints (@DET, 4.7): As Lance Moore's role in the offense has dwindled in recent weeks, Colston's has been on the rise. He has four double-digit GC games in his past six, and now he battles arguably the league's worst defense. Reggie Bush will miss the final two weeks, so there's one potential target for catches not in the picture. Two other things to think about: Dan Orlovsky hasn't looked awful in a starting role, and the Saints' defense does have the ability to put the offense in a hole in a road game. Somehow this feels like a pass-friendly game matchup, and if that's the case, Colston is a must for me.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears (GB, 5.9): There are a few concerns with Forte: one, his sub-4.0 yards-per-carry average in each of the past two weeks; two, a toe injury that might cost him some practice time; and three, that he managed but 10 GC points in his Week 11 matchup with these same Packers. But the fact remains Green Bay has surrendered at least 16 GC points to a running back in each of the past seven weeks except that Forte game, and the guy is, after all, the fifth best in points at his position. Chicago desperately needs a win on Monday night, so look for a big day from Forte.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (IND, 6.0): Can the Jaguars hang in this game for long enough to give Jones-Drew a full slate of carries? Better yet, does it matter? The guy is ranked first among running backs in receiving yards (484) and second in receptions (54), and with Fred Taylor's season finished, he's going to get a healthy share of touches somehow. Who else is there to threaten his workload, Chauncey Washington? Puh-leeze. Jones-Drew totaled 166 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown in Week 3 against these Colts, and that was when Taylor was healthy and earning 28 touches. For his career, Jones-Drew has 608 yards and six scores in six games against Indianapolis.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills (@DEN, 5.7): His owners have been disappointed in his performance this season, but Lynch nevertheless has three 100-yard rushing games in his past five, and 127 yards on 21 carries against a stiff Jets front in Week 15 represents a surprisingly strong performance. Denver rates 27th against the run and has served up multiple rushing touchdowns in four of the past five weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles defense/special teams (@WAS, 4.8): When these teams battled in Week 5, the Redskins were the victors in Philadelphia and the result was a mediocre six GC points for this unit. But things have changed since; the Redskins were flying high at the time, and today, they're riddled with injuries and barely hanging clinging to playoff hopes. The Eagles, meanwhile, are in the midst of a three-game winning streak, rallying their way into the playoff picture, and have had decent defensive showings the past two weeks. They'll come out to play, road game and all.

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs (MIA, 6.1): A point was made in my chat yesterday that the Dolphins haven't allowed a passing touchdown since Week 12, and yes, that is a fact. But in that Week 12 contest, Matt Cassel destroyed this defense for 415 yards and three scores, and since then the Dolphins' opponents were Marc Bulger, J.P. Losman and then Shaun Hill on their home field. Hardly the stiffest of competition, right? Even with those games, Miami ranks a so-so 20th against the pass, and Kansas City isn't the friendliest of environments for a road team to play. Thigpen has four consecutive games of 20 or more GC points at home; he's a cheap, reliable No. 2 quarterback.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans (@OAK, 5.5): Isn't it grand that Ryan Moats is his backup? The Texans clearly have no intention of trusting Moats with much of any role in the offense, which is why Slaton has endured 20-plus carry workloads in each of the past four weeks, and 50 total the past two combined. Oakland ranks 31st against the run, and was obliterated for 277 yards and two touchdowns by the Patriots last week … at home. So if you worry about this being a road game for Mr. Slaton, you shouldn't.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (@DET, 5.3): News that Reggie Bush's season is done is huge for Thomas' owners, as he becomes the de facto No. 1 back for a team that gets to face the bottom-ranked Lions run defense. Detroit, by the way, has surrendered 26 rushing touchdowns and 21 runs of 20-plus yards, most in the league in either category. Thomas has averaged 20 GC points over the past five weeks, three times surpassing that number, and be aware those were games when either Bush or Deuce McAllister was there to thieve touches from him. This gig is pretty much all his now.

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots (ARI, 4.6): I like Randy Moss quite a bit for this matchup, but he's a top-10 wide receiver in the GC, so Welker gets the column nod instead. What's not to like? Welker has double-digit points in five of the past six weeks, is consistently catching around seven balls a game and if his mediocre touchdown production is a concern, well, he's facing the defense that has allowed the most via the air this season. One would think at least one of those seven catches would go for a score!

No chance they'll be in my GC lineup

Marion Barber, Chicago Bears defense/special teams, David Garrard, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Chris Johnson, Eli Manning, Santana Moss, Philip Rivers, Tennessee Titans defense/special teams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jason Witten and LenDale White.

Tristan's Week 16 lineup

Total points: 1,683.
Percentage: 96.5. Overall rank: 7,982rd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 299th.

What'll be interesting to decide in Week 17 is what quarterbacks to slot in for Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, because if I had to guess today, I don't think there's a chance either plays more than half the game, if that much, next week. For this week, though, I don't have quite those concerns … though I admit that if the weather is terrible in New England on Sunday morning, I reserve the right to switch from Warner.

If that does happen, my replacement just might be Aaron Rodgers. The Bears, after all, are not all that stellar defending the pass.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBKurt WarnerCardinals2706.97.30.4
QBPeyton ManningColts2367.07.20.2
RBPierre ThomasSaints1055.35.3--
RBAdrian PetersonVikings2176.66.6--
WRCalvin JohnsonLions1725.45.4--
WRRandy MossPatriots1445.45.4--
TETony GonzalezChiefs1354.84.90.1
KJason ElamFalcons1163.73.7--
D/STIndianapolis Colts1524.84.8--
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
Prizes

Play Gridiron Challenge for your chance to win a $1,100 Best Buy Gift Card and the Ultimate Fan Pack.
Total ARV is $2,500